Bilateral trade between India and Vietnam reached $7.1 billion in the last twelve months, an increase of 13.9% over the prior period, according to commerce ministry data. India's exports accounted for roughly 7.7% of the total, with Ayush & Herbal Medicine, engineering goods and processed foods the leading categories.
Business sentiment is positive but cautious. A survey of 1,244 Indian exporters found that 7.7% expect to increase shipments to Vietnam within a year, while a third said they would need support on compliance and finance to do so. Chambers of commerce are organising training workshops.
Trade at a glance
Looking ahead, officials anticipate that an early-harvest package could be signed within the fiscal year, with full implementation to follow. If concluded, analysts estimate the agreement could lift bilateral trade by 13.9% annually and add $252 million to Indian exports in the first two years.
Negotiators from both sides concluded a further round of talks this month, covering tariff schedules, rules of origin and mutual recognition of standards. Officials described the discussions as constructive and said text on goods trade is about 70 percent settled, with services and investment provisions still under discussion.
By the numbers
Competition for Vietnam's market is intense. Exporters from France and several Southeast Asian economies enjoy preferential access under existing agreements, which has eroded India's price competitiveness by as much as 2.8% in some tariff lines. The new agreement would level that field.
“Tariff cuts are the headline. The single window is what actually changes an exporter's year.”
Negotiations and tariff outlook
Vietnam is also a growing investor in India. Cumulative foreign direct investment from Vietnam stands at $7.1 billion, concentrated in manufacturing, logistics and renewable energy. Several large announcements are in the pipeline, and a bilateral investment forum in Mundra next quarter is expected to draw 1,244 delegates.
Source: IGEN Intelligence analysis of company filings and earnings calls data. Illustrative mock data.
Non-tariff barriers remain the most frequent complaint. Exporters cite inconsistent labelling rules, long testing queues and divergent sanitary requirements. A joint working group has been tasked with creating a single-window process to cut approval times from an average of 90 days to about 30.
| Category | Trade value | YoY | Share of total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ayush & Herbal Medicine | $2.6B | +18.9% | 6.6% |
| Engineering goods | $0.8B | +5.6% | 11.3% |
| Processed foods | $4.7B | -0.1% | 12.4% |
| Textiles & apparel | $5.4B | +1.4% | 4% |
| Pharmaceuticals | $4.5B | +19.2% | 12.6% |
Investment, demand and barriers
Services trade is the other major prong. Indian information-technology and professional-services firms already earn $252 million annually from clients in Vietnam, and negotiators are working on provisions covering short-term professional mobility and recognition of qualifications, a long-standing ask from the industry.
Timeline of key events
- Talks launched
Negotiators set scope covering goods, services and investment.
- Goods text settled
About 70 percent of the goods chapter agreed.
- Single-window group formed
Joint working group begins work on non-tariff barriers.
- Investment forum
Bilateral forum in Mundra-hosted delegation week.
- Early-harvest target
Signing targeted within the fiscal year.
On the demand side, consumer spending in Vietnam is rising and import patterns are shifting. Retailers there are broadening their supplier base for categories where Indian firms are competitive, including textiles, home goods and pharmaceuticals, and some have opened sourcing offices in India.
Expert commentary
“A level playing field is all most Indian exporters ask for in Vietnam.”
“In my conversations with procurement heads, reliability is mentioned three times for every mention of price.”
“The risk I would watch is a sudden policy move in Vietnam. Everything else can be hedged or absorbed.”
What to expect next
For Indian exporters, the central prize is tariff reduction. Duties on Ayush & Herbal Medicine products entering Vietnam currently average 2.8%, and the draft schedule would phase these to zero over seven years on roughly 7.7% of tariff lines. Sensitive items, including some agricultural and dairy products, remain subject to quota-based arrangements.
What it means for you
Map tariff lines to the draft schedule now and start certification for labelling and testing requirements in Vietnam.
Expect more supplier choice in textiles, home goods and pharmaceuticals; qualify new Indian suppliers early.
Watch announcements around the investment forum; logistics, renewables and manufacturing are priority areas.
Mobility and qualification-recognition provisions may open short-term assignment routes in Vietnam.
Companies and leaders in this story
Frequently asked questions
Sources
- Company filings and earnings calls: Disclosures on order books and capex
- Ministry-level press releases: Scheme guidelines and cabinet decisions
- Directorate General of Foreign Trade: Export-import policy and public notices
- Central Board of Indirect Taxes & Customs: Port-level clearance and dwell data
Mock content for demonstration. Names, figures and quotes are illustrative and not real reporting.
