Indian Diamond exporters shipped $8.4 billion of goods to Japan in Q3 FY27, a rise of 9.6% on the same period last year and the strongest quarterly print since 2022. Customs data reviewed by IGEN shows the increase was broad-based, with refined copper accounting for just under a third of the gain.

For smaller exporters, the playbook emerging from the strongest performers is consistent: invest early in certification, lock freight with annual contracts, hedge at least half of currency exposure, and diversify into at least two markets so a single policy change cannot erase a year's margin.

Where the growth is coming from

Competitors are not standing still. Suppliers in Saudi Arabia have cut prices aggressively in recent months and are courting the same buyers with long-term agreements. Indian exporters who win on price alone, analysts warn, will find their position tested when currency tailwinds fade.

Looking ahead, the sector expects continued momentum through Q4 FY26, supported by restocking cycles abroad and a pipeline of government-to-government engagement. The risk case is a sharp rise in container rates or a policy shift in Japan; the base case is 7.3% annual growth through 2028.

Maruti Suzuki reported that its Japan order book has doubled since January and now represents 7.3% of export revenue. The company is adding a second shift at its main plant and has booked additional container allocation on the Mundra-Japan service through the end of 2028.

“Buyers are not leaving a supplier, they are building a portfolio. India is now in that portfolio for the first time in many categories.”

Margins, freight and payment risk

Buyers in Japan have spent two years reducing reliance on a single source country, and Indian suppliers have been the principal beneficiary. Procurement managers cite shorter lead times out of Mundra, competitive pricing after the rupee's modest depreciation, and a growing base of certified plants as the reasons for switching.

Government support is arriving in pieces. The commerce ministry has extended interest-equalisation benefits for another year and approved $335 million for market-access initiatives, including buyer-seller meets in Japan. Exporters say the funds help but are less valuable than faster refunds of duties and taxes, which still take about 40 days.

Competition and market access

Tariff structures are shaping the mix of exports. Under the current schedule, finished goods face a duty of 10.8% in Japan, while intermediate inputs enter at a reduced rate, which has encouraged Indian firms to ship semi-finished lots for final processing near the customer. That shift supports volume but dilutes unit value.

Services linked to goods trade are growing in parallel. Testing, certification and logistics companies serving the corridor reported double-digit revenue gains, and at least four Indian firms have opened warehouse or light-assembly facilities in Japan to sit closer to customers and shorten delivery windows to under ten days.

Outlook for the next four quarters

The picture is not uniformly bright. Freight rates on the corridor, though 10.8% below their peak, remain volatile, and several mid-sized exporters say payment cycles have lengthened to 75 days from 55. Trade-finance providers report a pickup in requests for credit insurance and invoice discounting.