Indian Energy exporters shipped $1.6 billion of goods to Indonesia in Q1 FY28, a rise of 8.3% on the same period last year and the strongest quarterly print since 2022. Customs data reviewed by IGEN shows the increase was broad-based, with polished diamonds accounting for just under a third of the gain.

Looking ahead, the sector expects continued momentum through Q4 FY26, supported by restocking cycles abroad and a pipeline of government-to-government engagement. The risk case is a sharp rise in container rates or a policy shift in Indonesia; the base case is 26% annual growth through 2028.

Where the growth is coming from

The picture is not uniformly bright. Freight rates on the corridor, though 5.7% below their peak, remain volatile, and several mid-sized exporters say payment cycles have lengthened to 75 days from 55. Trade-finance providers report a pickup in requests for credit insurance and invoice discounting.

For smaller exporters, the playbook emerging from the strongest performers is consistent: invest early in certification, lock freight with annual contracts, hedge at least half of currency exposure, and diversify into at least two markets so a single policy change cannot erase a year's margin.

Compliance remains the quiet constraint. Importers in Indonesia now require traceability documentation down to the batch level, and exporters without digital record-keeping are finding themselves excluded from tender shortlists. Industry associations say fewer than half of small suppliers currently meet the standard.

“Buyers are not leaving a supplier, they are building a portfolio. India is now in that portfolio for the first time in many categories.”

Margins, freight and payment risk

Services linked to goods trade are growing in parallel. Testing, certification and logistics companies serving the corridor reported double-digit revenue gains, and at least four Indian firms have opened warehouse or light-assembly facilities in Indonesia to sit closer to customers and shorten delivery windows to under ten days.

Maruti Suzuki reported that its Indonesia order book has doubled since January and now represents 26% of export revenue. The company is adding a second shift at its main plant and has booked additional container allocation on the Visakhapatnam-Indonesia service through the end of 2028.

Competition and market access

Competitors are not standing still. Suppliers in South Korea have cut prices aggressively in recent months and are courting the same buyers with long-term agreements. Indian exporters who win on price alone, analysts warn, will find their position tested when currency tailwinds fade.

Tariff structures are shaping the mix of exports. Under the current schedule, finished goods face a duty of 5.7% in Indonesia, while intermediate inputs enter at a reduced rate, which has encouraged Indian firms to ship semi-finished lots for final processing near the customer. That shift supports volume but dilutes unit value.

Outlook for the next four quarters

Government support is arriving in pieces. The commerce ministry has extended interest-equalisation benefits for another year and approved $332 million for market-access initiatives, including buyer-seller meets in Indonesia. Exporters say the funds help but are less valuable than faster refunds of duties and taxes, which still take about 40 days.