Indian Banking exporters shipped $4.3 billion of goods to Vietnam in Q2 FY27, a rise of 18.6% on the same period last year and the strongest quarterly print since 2022. Customs data reviewed by IGEN shows the increase was broad-based, with specialty steel accounting for just under a third of the gain.

Tariff structures are shaping the mix of exports. Under the current schedule, finished goods face a duty of 11.2% in Vietnam, while intermediate inputs enter at a reduced rate, which has encouraged Indian firms to ship semi-finished lots for final processing near the customer. That shift supports volume but dilutes unit value.

Where the growth is coming from

The picture is not uniformly bright. Freight rates on the corridor, though 11.2% below their peak, remain volatile, and several mid-sized exporters say payment cycles have lengthened to 75 days from 55. Trade-finance providers report a pickup in requests for credit insurance and invoice discounting.

Competitors are not standing still. Suppliers in Australia have cut prices aggressively in recent months and are courting the same buyers with long-term agreements. Indian exporters who win on price alone, analysts warn, will find their position tested when currency tailwinds fade.

Tata Steel reported that its Vietnam order book has doubled since January and now represents 21.6% of export revenue. The company is adding a second shift at its main plant and has booked additional container allocation on the Chennai-Vietnam service through the end of 2029.

“The risk is complacency. Price wins the first order; certification and delivery win the fifth.”

Margins, freight and payment risk

Compliance remains the quiet constraint. Importers in Vietnam now require traceability documentation down to the batch level, and exporters without digital record-keeping are finding themselves excluded from tender shortlists. Industry associations say fewer than half of small suppliers currently meet the standard.

For smaller exporters, the playbook emerging from the strongest performers is consistent: invest early in certification, lock freight with annual contracts, hedge at least half of currency exposure, and diversify into at least two markets so a single policy change cannot erase a year's margin.

Competition and market access

Government support is arriving in pieces. The commerce ministry has extended interest-equalisation benefits for another year and approved $185 million for market-access initiatives, including buyer-seller meets in Vietnam. Exporters say the funds help but are less valuable than faster refunds of duties and taxes, which still take about 40 days.

Buyers in Vietnam have spent two years reducing reliance on a single source country, and Indian suppliers have been the principal beneficiary. Procurement managers cite shorter lead times out of Chennai, competitive pricing after the rupee's modest depreciation, and a growing base of certified plants as the reasons for switching.

Outlook for the next four quarters

Looking ahead, the sector expects continued momentum through Q1 FY27, supported by restocking cycles abroad and a pipeline of government-to-government engagement. The risk case is a sharp rise in container rates or a policy shift in Vietnam; the base case is 21.6% annual growth through 2029.