India's Global Trade sector has lined up $7.1 billion of clean-energy and efficiency projects through 2028, according to a review of company disclosures and ministry data. About 10.2% of the pipeline is for captive or open-access renewable power, with storage and green-hydrogen pilots making up most of the rest.

Measurement is a hurdle. Few mid-sized firms can currently produce audited scope-1 and scope-2 data, let alone scope-3, and consultants report a backlog of requests. Industry associations are developing a common template to reduce cost and improve comparability.

The cost curve has moved

Carbon markets are maturing. The domestic compliance scheme will cover large emitters in the sector from Q3 FY27, and early trading in voluntary credits suggests prices of about $474 million per hundred tonnes. Companies are building internal carbon accounting teams, drawing talent from consulting and utilities.

Policy support continues. The latest budget extended accelerated depreciation for efficiency equipment and allocated $7.1 billion to transmission and storage. Industry bodies welcomed the measures but asked for faster clearance of open-access applications and a standard wheeling charge across states.

The economics have shifted markedly. Delivered cost of firm renewable power for industrial users fell 9.6% over two years, and in several states now undercuts grid tariffs for large consumers. Tata Steel said its latest 25-year agreement locks in power at about 11.1% below its current average cost.

“If you cannot measure your emissions, you cannot sell to Europe in three years.”

Customers and carbon pricing

Storage is the next lever. Pilot battery installations of 1,631 megawatt-hours at industrial sites are being used to shift load and avoid peak charges, and developers expect costs to fall another 11.1% by 2028. Regulators are drafting rules to let storage participate in ancillary markets.

Finance is flowing. Green bond issuance from the sector reached $474 million this year, and development banks have extended concessional lines for efficiency retrofits. Lenders are starting to price transition risk, offering lower spreads to borrowers with credible decarbonisation plans.

Storage, hydrogen and the grid

The outlook is for steady progress rather than a step change. Analysts expect the sector's emissions intensity to fall by about 10.2% by 2028 if announced projects proceed, with the largest improvements coming from power procurement rather than process change.

Grids are the weak link. Transmission approvals and last-mile connectivity have delayed several projects by 12 months or more, and curtailment in renewable-rich regions rose 11.1% last year. A planned set of green corridors aims to address the problem, but timelines are tight.

Finance and the outlook

Customers are driving the change. Buyers in Indonesia and UAE increasingly require product-level carbon data, and a carbon border mechanism in Europe is concentrating minds. Indian exporters who can demonstrate lower embodied emissions report better pricing and longer contract tenors.