India's Retail sector has lined up $6.5 billion of clean-energy and efficiency projects through 2028, according to a review of company disclosures and ministry data. About 17.4% of the pipeline is for captive or open-access renewable power, with storage and green-hydrogen pilots making up most of the rest.

Policy support continues. The latest budget extended accelerated depreciation for efficiency equipment and allocated $6.5 billion to transmission and storage. Industry bodies welcomed the measures but asked for faster clearance of open-access applications and a standard wheeling charge across states.

The cost curve has moved

The outlook is for steady progress rather than a step change. Analysts expect the sector's emissions intensity to fall by about 17.4% by 2028 if announced projects proceed, with the largest improvements coming from power procurement rather than process change.

Green hydrogen remains early but is moving from slides to steel and concrete. A consortium including JSW Steel has commissioned a pilot electrolyser near Kandla, with output intended for domestic fertiliser and export-grade ammonia, and the government has offered production-linked support for the first tranche.

Carbon markets are maturing. The domestic compliance scheme will cover large emitters in the sector from Q3 FY27, and early trading in voluntary credits suggests prices of about $285 million per hundred tonnes. Companies are building internal carbon accounting teams, drawing talent from consulting and utilities.

“Grids, not generation, will decide how fast this goes.”

Customers and carbon pricing

Finance is flowing. Green bond issuance from the sector reached $285 million this year, and development banks have extended concessional lines for efficiency retrofits. Lenders are starting to price transition risk, offering lower spreads to borrowers with credible decarbonisation plans.

Measurement is a hurdle. Few mid-sized firms can currently produce audited scope-1 and scope-2 data, let alone scope-3, and consultants report a backlog of requests. Industry associations are developing a common template to reduce cost and improve comparability.

Storage, hydrogen and the grid

Customers are driving the change. Buyers in Australia and Singapore increasingly require product-level carbon data, and a carbon border mechanism in Europe is concentrating minds. Indian exporters who can demonstrate lower embodied emissions report better pricing and longer contract tenors.

The economics have shifted markedly. Delivered cost of firm renewable power for industrial users fell 10.3% over two years, and in several states now undercuts grid tariffs for large consumers. JSW Steel said its latest 25-year agreement locks in power at about 9.1% below its current average cost.

Finance and the outlook

Grids are the weak link. Transmission approvals and last-mile connectivity have delayed several projects by 12 months or more, and curtailment in renewable-rich regions rose 9.1% last year. A planned set of green corridors aims to address the problem, but timelines are tight.